Demand Destruction | 03 | Fossil disruption, electric acceleration
The outcomes of all of this, according to us
By Kate Mackenzie, Tim Sahay —
Our new podcast "bonus" episode riffs a little on our latest essay, which sets out our key beliefs about what the permanent outcomes will be of this energy crisis.
[Links for Spotify, Apple, Pocketcasts, everywhere]
We see it as a turning point in energy systems moving away from fossil fuels (especially oil and gas) and we definitely don't see a resurgence of fossil fuels, even due to fiscal constraints or political backlash. Nor will we see energy consumption patterns revert as they did after Covid.
For all the noise from temporary vs permanent measures; electrification vs substitution; and the messy data points (looking at you, coal shipments).
We also interrogate the "hyperagency of consumers" that Tim has identified in the emerging energy transition wave. It's not just countries but consumers that are derisking from fossil fuels; this time around there are options on both the generation and consumption side. Once you electrify cooking or transport, or install solar+battery instead of a diesel generator, you don't go back.
And we debate exactly how excited to be about financial markets becoming re-enthused about renewable energy stocks; and look at a Bloomberg report that Chinese EV and clean energy companies are making bigger efforts to build their overseas markets – Chery, for example, flew 20 Canadian car dealers to the Shanghai Auto Show. That's interesting because thus far there haven't been many indications that the Chinese central government is interested in using the crisis to amp up its clean tech imports, and actually cut the export tax rebate for solar and batteries at the end of March, thus removing an incentive to importers of the stuff. On the other hand: